Predicting Intensive Care Unit Length of Stay After Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery Using Machine Learning

Background

Patients with acute type A aortic dissection are usually transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) after surgery. Prolonged ICU length of stay (ICU-LOS) is associated with higher level of care and higher mortality. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models for predicting ICU-LOS after acute type A aortic dissection surgery.

Methods

A total of 353 patients with acute type A aortic dissection transferred to ICU after surgery from September 2016 to August 2019 were included. The patients were randomly divided into the training dataset (70%) and the validation dataset (30%). Eighty-four preoperative and intraoperative factors were collected for each patient. ICU-LOS was divided into four intervals (<4, 4–7, 7–10, and >10 days) according to interquartile range. Kendall correlation coefficient was used to identify factors associated with ICU-LOS. Five classic classifiers, Naive Bayes, Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, were developed to predict ICU-LOS. Area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the models’ performance.

Results

The mean age of patients was 51.0 ± 10.9 years and 307 (87.0%) were males. Twelve predictors were identified for ICU-LOS, namely, D-dimer, serum creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase, cardiopulmonary bypass time, fasting blood glucose, white blood cell count, surgical time, aortic cross-clamping time, with Marfan’s syndrome, without Marfan’s syndrome, without aortic aneurysm, and platelet count. Random Forest yielded the highest performance, with an AUC of 0.991 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.978–1.000) and 0.837 (95% CI: 0.766–0.908) in the training and validation datasets, respectively.

Conclusions

Machine learning has the potential to predict ICU-LOS for acute type A aortic dissection. This tool could improve the management of ICU resources and patient-throughput planning, and allow better communication with patients and their families.